The Finance Gem 💎 #107: EBITDA Doesn’t Pay Bills. Cash Flow Does

in partnership with

Hi there, 

There’s a common misconception about what drives company valuations. Conventional wisdom says it’s all about revenue growth, EBITDA, or profit margins.

But that’s not what truly moves investors.

In today’s issue, I’ll cover:

  • My session with Oracle NetSuite for CEOs, CFOs, and finance leaders

  • Why P&L Forecasts fall short

  • The 4 levers that really determine your company’s value â€” and how to improve.

On August 26 I co-hosted a powerful session in partnership with Oracle Netsuite’s Ranga Bodla titled “EBITDA Doesn’t Pay Your Bills—Cash Flow Does”. 

We spent an hour discussing one of the biggest financial blind spots I see everyone making with EBITDA and the feedback has been fantastic. I heard from so many of those who tuned in who shared they found this session insightful and eye-opening.

Here’s what I covered among others:

  • Why EBITDA can mislead you about your company's real financial health

  • The three core drivers of operating cash flow that actually matter

  • A practical cash flow checklist you can use immediately

So if you haven’t had a chance to watch it live, please don’t miss out on the the recording and Hit Reply to let me know if you enjoyed it.

Why P&L Forecasts Fall Short

A 12-month P&L will give you a target. But it won’t tell you how to fund the plan, when cash is needed, or whether your balance sheet can handle it.

1, Profit projections alone are not a financial strategy.

In today’s issue, I’ll show you what real forecasting looks like—and why CEOs who stop at the P&L risk liquidity strain and stalled growth.

2. Profit Isn’t Liquidity

A profitable P&L can still run out of cash. Growth often consumes liquidity before it generates it—through receivables, inventory build, or upfront hiring.

Strategic CFOs forecast not just revenues and expenses, but the timing of operating, investing, and financing flows. That visibility shows when cash will tighten, how much is needed, and which levers exist to cover it.

Without it, CEOs face liquidity surprises that derail strategy—even when the P&L looks strong.

3. The Balance Sheet Is the Stress Test

Every major decision eventually lands on the balance sheet.

Inventory ties up working capital. Capex strains leverage. Debt shapes covenants and refinancing risk. Forecasting balance sheet impacts shows whether your company can absorb those choices without overextending solvency or eroding financial flexibility.

High-performing CFO offices don’t treat the balance sheet as an afterthought.

They use it as the stress test that reveals whether growth is sustainable—or fragile.

4. Capital Choices Must Be Modeled

Debt, equity, and reinvestment are not interchangeable. Each changes enterprise value, ownership dilution, cost of capital, and resilience in downturns.

Leading CFOs run structured scenarios—testing payback, interest coverage, dilution outcomes, and investor appetite—before committing to any capital path.

When companies skip this, they default to reactive financing under pressure, which destroys value and credibility.

Proactive modeling ensures capital is a strategic advantage, not a rescue mechanism.

5. Real Forecasting Is Three-Statement

True forecasting integrates P&L, balance sheet, and cash flow into one system. This gives executives a forward-looking view of profitability, liquidity, and solvency in real time.

It’s not about predicting the exact numbers—it’s about preparing the business to fund strategy under different conditions, with foresight and control.

That integration is what separates tactical planning from valuation-building discipline. Because in the eyes of investors, the ability to connect profit to cash and cash to capacity is what drives multiples—not the P&L alone.

What happens when financial strategy becomes automated?

You’ll finally have dashboards with live visibility to guide strategic decisions. You’ll stop reacting to past results and start planning 3–5 years ahead.

Without lifting a finger. Without waiting. And without requiring CFO translation.

This isn’t about better reporting — It’s about building a business that’s actually fundable, acquirable, and resilient.

This is the full system CFOs rely on to lead with confidence and CEOs trust with their capital allocatin strategy, cash flow planning and valution engineering.

If you haven’t already, see how it works here: Financiario and book a demo to learn more

The 4 levers that really determine your company’s value — and how to improve them.

Here’s the reality: investors see through profit forecasts. What drives valuation isn’t the size of your EBITDA line, but the quality of your cash generation, the efficiency of your capital use, and the credibility of your leadership to deliver.

1. Free Cash Flow Conversion

Accounting profit includes revenue not yet collected and costs not yet paid. Free cash flow shows what’s left after real expenses, taxes, and reinvestment.

That’s what investors value.

Two companies with €10m EBITDA can be worlds apart in value if one converts €9m into free cash flow while the other only generates €2m.

2. Capital Efficiency

Valuation also depends on how effectively each euro is turned into growth.

If one company doubles revenue burning €15m in capital while another does it with €5m, the second commands the higher multiple.

Efficient growth reduces dilution, lowers financing risk, and demonstrates scalability.

3. Leadership Credibility

Investors discount numbers they don’t believe.

Consistent forecasting accuracy, transparency in setbacks, and a strong execution team build trust.

Credibility acts as a valuation multiplier—two companies with identical EBITDA may receive vastly different multiples depending on whether investors trust leadership.

4. Strategic Execution

Finally, valuation reflects the company’s ability to turn strategy into results.

Clear priorities, measurable outcomes, and disciplined capital allocation prove that growth projections are achievable, not just theoretical.

Execution is what transforms forecasts into enterprise value.

Valuation isn’t just math. It’s the signal your business sends about its ability to convert profit into cash, deploy capital efficiently, and deliver results consistently.

That’s why moving beyond a P&L forecast to full three-statement forecasting is not just financial discipline—it’s valuation strategy.

Best wishes and Enjoy Labor Day Weekend,

Oana

Looking for my viral Checklists and Cheat Sheets? Find them here.

Reply

or to participate.